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  Glaciology Tasmania

Rain Rain Rain - The end of the bushfire season? and the end of our memory of it?

2/6/2019

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It is a beautiful grey day in Hobart, it’s raining and most if not all people are relieved.
It most likely signals the end of the bushfires that have consumed about 3% of Tasmanian’s total area.
With all the pictures of charred landscapes and burned houses, and news of dead and thirsty animal looking for food and water, the impact on Tasmanian leatherwood production and thousand years old trees having burned and lost for ever.
It is clear that Tasmania or at least some Tasmanians will feel the consequences of this disaster for a long time.
 
The larger question is whether we will remember it in 3 weeks’ time and learn from this manmade disaster, or whether we move on and occupy ourselves with something else unpacking the new high tech toys, buying a new car, taking the extra airplane vacation and continuing to buy the ten thousand time wrapped smallest portion of chips from the store…
 
People may ask what has my shopping habits at Coles or Woolies or anywhere else to do with the bushfires?
 
It is our consumerism that is fuelling Climate Change with the bushfires being just one of many consequences.   
 
So next time you may shop take a bag with you, look for a product that has less or best no packaging and foremost eat it all up and enjoy.

a few mor links on
bushfires and lessons learned from previous bushfires

Contrary to common belief, some forests get more fire-resistant with age
The Conversation April 17, 2018 6.49am AEST


Does fuel reduction burning help prevent damage from fires?
The Conversation January 21, 2013 1.36pm AEDT


The bitter lesson of the Californian fires
The Conversation November 14, 2018 6.02am AEDT


Dry lightning has set Tasmania ablaze, and climate change makes it more likely to happen again
The Conversation February 7, 2019 6.20am AEDT
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Tasmanian Bushfires and Vulnerability of the wider Hobart/Derwent River Urban Area

1/26/2019

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What I have learned researching wild fires over the past few days.

Picture
There are many types of wild fires:
  • Ground fires which consumes shrubs, grasses
  • Tree Crown fires that burn the crown of the trees.
Dependent on the type of vegetation and various conditions a ground fire may either stay a ground fire moving through the forest or it may become a much more volatile crown fires.
https://theconversation.com/does-fuel-reduction-burning-help-prevent-damage-from-fires-11600?fbclid=IwAR3TRtRjbcFlr0c7hhTtK8u_ZRt-OKH4q9nmrZ5gRjrweGeedv3ib8bABXM
 
Wind and weather conditions are the main drivers of a fire spreading as well as uncertainties in controlling a fire.
Under the right conditions fires develop into catastrophic fires in which the best prepared houses with no vegetation around are not defendable. (see for example facebook post from fire.tas.gov.au on a house that burned on January 2019 at Skittle Ball Plains near Miena, details below)
 
Under those right conditions ember attack can ignite new fire and houses up to 20 km in front of the fire and fire can spread catastrophically fast well ahead of the actual fire front.
Under the right conditions fire can sweep through urban areas which were previously thought to be immune to wild fires. (examples Dunnalley, Santa Rosa – California https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/homes-destroyed-residents-killed-as-explosive-wildfires-burn-california-wine-country/news-story/716d34dc4a45c2414b0e048cc59ce9ff).
Under those right conditions a city like Hobart will not be defendable and bear the need for mass evacuation.
Northerly winds with hot air flowing from mainland Australia to Tasmania leading to temperatures in the high 30’s (up to about 40 degree in 2013) make for uncontrollable catastrophic bushfire conditions.
While there is an escape route across the river in Hobart, such conditions put Kingston, Blackmans Bay at a very high risk, as access road (Southern Outlet, Huon Highway) may become blocked and Tinderbox, Margate area would be threatened at the same time.


Picture
Bushfire plans:
Bush fire plans on fire.tas.gov.au are limited to communities directly adjacent to bush and reserves. There is no bush fire plan for the urban parts of Hobart North Hobart, Battery Point, Kingston, Blackmans Bay, New Town, Moonah, Glenorchy, Lindisfarn, Bellerive, Howrah, Brighton, Tea Tree, Richmond or Sorell …
Many of the houses in these areas are weatherboard houses that can easily burn.
“The City of Hobart sends bushfire preparedness information to people who have bought property in parts of the Hobart municipality that are classified as bushfire prone.
Bushfire-prone properties are within 100 metres of an area of bushland that is 1 hectare or more in size.” source https://www.hobartcity.com.au/City-services/Bushfire-management/Bushfire-management-for-residents?fbclid=IwAR3RXIzA-ccbQPWMFUaJJTeU1KFolVESRvDLTyR24tnVpTTs6Da6OdpuIf8
The existing bush fire plans for Hobart City are limited to reserve bushfire management plans (BMPs) and the plans are mainly more than 10 years old. https://www.hobartcity.com.au/City-services/Bushfire-management?fbclid=IwAR1RrxyESqeKtXlkxU3Vi2m03z6W78Flz-ZVgnapz8hNU5vUm8c4RKN-fL0
  • Ridgeway Park–Waterworks Reserves Fire Management Plan (2003)
  • Knocklofty Reserve–McRobies Gully Fire Management Plan (2005)
  • Queens Domain Fire Management Plan (2008)
  • Bicentennial Park–Porter Hill Fire Management Plan (2014)
  • Wellington Park Fire Management Strategy (2006).
These plans seem to be outdated and do not consider new insight gained over the past 10 years and require significant revision.

Conclusions:
Should dry lightning ignite several fires in the wider Hobart/ Derwent River area, under the right catastrophic uncontrollable fire conditions large extents of the wider Hobart urban area is under threat requiring wide spread evacuations and that could devastate a large urban area all the way to and across the river. A scenario Councils in this area and emergency services should prepare for

References
 
Fire.tas.gov.au facebook post January 23, 2019
https://scontent-syd2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/50255662_2504208816287208_7907839393929363456_o.jpg?_nc_cat=110&_nc_ht=scontent-syd2-1.xx&oh=00e5dff3159d2d3afad89bacac05493a&oe=5CC07DEC

A house at Skittle Ball Plains near Miena was lost to fire just before 7pm last night. The owners had a plan to stay and defend their property with the assistance of fire crews.
They had a clear space around their property, a fire pump and sprinklers on the roof.
Fire crews and the owners were defending the property from bushfire when conditions became untenable and required everyone to evacuate. Thankfully everyone involved is safe.
This photo clearly shows an unburnt area and green trees around the house, which indicates the house came under ember attack, rather than a direct impact from the nearby Central Plateau fire.
Not even seemingly defendable properties are defendable in the conditions we are facing.
Know your risk. Make a plan.
No property is worth your life.
picture Adam Doran

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    Stefan Vogel

    a scientist and climate change, sustainability consultant with an interest in complex systems affordable housing, public infrastructure and education systems

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